ChatGPT Protest Crowd Size Calculator Prompt

Introduction

Below is a Custom Protest Crowd Calculator prompt we developed in ChatGPT to help you estimate your crowd sizes for future events, based on previous protest data. Because every city, town, and region is different, we decided to give you the instructions and prompts to develop your own custom calculator in ChatGPT, rather than rely on ours. This is so that your calculator will be more accurate to your Indivisible chapter and experience.

All of the data you need can be found in your Mobilize.us account. Go to your Mobilize account and look up your events. Look at your past events. Click on the Past column to view your past events, which holds all the data you need. An example is pictured below.

Click on the event name and then click on the Past column. Most of the data you need can be found right here. An example is pictured below.

All you need to do is help ChatGPT fill in the other blanks, such as your estimated crowd size that showed up for each event. Maybe you have someone acting as an official crowd counter in your group or can get the information from your local police department if they kept track of this information. It’s your best guess as to the crowd size that helps ChatGPT improve it’s forecast calculations because it compares what it predicted and then what reality is. Please keep in mind that in order to improve this tool you must feed it back the results of your protest along with the data above each time. It will take around 20 examples of data before it becomes reliably accurate. It “learns” every time you give it follow up information

The “Vibe Score” is something new that we have been working on and is optional. This will require a little manual work on your part, but it’s easy and ChatGPT can help walk you through it. Basically it’s taking a “temperature” of the political atmosphere by using Google trends to monitor the trend of searches performed on Google to gauge the current level of political outrage in the country that might impact your turnout. For instance, if the country is angry about the Epstein files not being released and there is an uptick in the Google searches, you can plug that information into the calculator and it will take that data into account for your final projected crowd size.

Below are the instructions (Step 1) and the ChatGPT prompt to use (Step 2). When you are done, ChatGPT can build this into an Excel or Google sheet as well (Step 3), or give you instructions on how to build it yourself with a simple cut/paste of formulas. We have also provided the instructions and prompts in PDF and raw text format for easy cut/paste into Chat GPT as HTML code sometimes adds extra code when cutting and pasting.

Custom Protest Crowd Calculator Toolkit

Developed by Indivisible Douglas County Oregon
info@indivisibledouglascounty.org
www.indivisibledouglascounty.org

Why Predicting Crowd Size Matters

Running a protest is powerful—but it’s also risky and resource-intensive.

Knowing how many people might show up helps you:

  • Keep folks safe
  • Plan how many volunteers or safety monitors you’ll need
  • Be ready for counter-protesters
  • Talk to the press with confidence
  • Avoid wasting time, money, and energy

Knowledge is power. Let’s take the guesswork out of organizing.

Why One Size Doesn’t Fit All

Every city, every region is unique:

  • Political climate
  • Demographics
  • History of protests
  • Police response
  • Weather patterns
  • Local news vibes

So forget “one-size-fits-all.” We need tools that reflect OUR local reality.

How to Build Your Custom Calculator

Step 1 — Gather Your Data

Before you talk to ChatGPT, gather:

  • Your past events:
    • How many signed up?
    • How many showed up?
    • What day and time was it?
    • Any special conditions? (weather, holidays, intimidation, big news)
  • Your usual no-show percentage
  • How often walk-ins show up
  • Any unique local factors that shape your turnout
  • Your best days and times for big crowds

Where to Find This Data

Use Mobilize.us — your ultimate data hub.

For Indivisible chapters and many progressive groups, Mobilize.us is the go-to platform for:

  • Scheduling protests and events
  • Communicating with supporters
  • Tracking signups in real-time
  • Recording who actually checks in
  • Seeing who cancels or no-shows
  • Collecting detailed event notes

TIP: If you’re already using Mobilize, you have a goldmine of data waiting for you. Pull your past events into a spreadsheet or jot down the stats from Mobilize reports. That makes feeding data into ChatGPT way faster and more accurate.

Or check your own manual records:

  • Sign-up sheets
  • Volunteer logs
  • Debrief notes from past actions

Bottom line: You probably have more data than you realize!

Step 2 — Drop the Prompt Script into ChatGPT

Copy the Prompt Script below.

Paste it into ChatGPT. ChatGPT will guide you through questions one by one. Answer as honestly and completely as you can.

Prompt Script for ChatGPT

Hi ChatGPT. I want to create a customized protest crowd size predictor for my local area.

Please help me build it step-by-step. First, ask me each of the following questions one at a time. Wait for my answer before asking the next question:

---

1. How many protests or rallies have you organized in your area so far?

2. For each of those events, tell me:
- How many people signed up ahead of time?
- How many actually showed up (best estimate or confirmed)?
- What special factors were in play? For example:
    - Holiday or long weekend?
    - Extreme heat or cold?
    - Rain or storms?
    - Police or counter-protester intimidation?
    - Major political news or crisis that week?
- What day of the week was it?
- What time of day?

3. About how many people usually cancel or no-show after signing up? Give me a rough percentage.

4. How big of a deal are walk-ins at your events — folks who show up without signing up?
- Rarely happens
- Sometimes happens
- Often happens
- Almost always happens

5. How does having police at your events affect your turnout?
- More people come because they feel safer
- Fewer people come because they’re afraid
- No real difference

6. Are there unique local factors that affect your crowds?
Things like:
- Local demographics (race, age, political leanings)
- History of protests in your area
- Police behavior in your city
- Rural vs. urban differences
- Anything else you think matters

7. What days and times usually bring out the biggest crowds for you?

8. Do you want to include national or local political events as a factor in predicting your crowd sizes?

9. Would you rather have this calculator built in Excel or Google Sheets?

---

Once I’ve answered all these questions, here’s what I want you to do:

✅ Analyze my past numbers and figure out multipliers for:
- Weather conditions
- Holidays
- Police presence
- Time of day
- Day of the week
- Local unique factors

✅ Build me a working Excel or Google Sheet with:
- Spaces to enter:
    - Signups for future events
    - Conditions for the day
    - Day and time
    - Police presence
    - Optional vibe/news scores
- Formulas that:
    - Calculate my final multiplier
    - Estimate my crowd size
    - Tell me how many volunteers I’ll need
    - Predict show-ups vs. walk-ins
    - Estimate cancellations

✅ Give me step-by-step instructions in plain, easy language so anyone can use it.

Let’s do this!

Step 3 — Get Your Calculator

ChatGPT will:

  • Crunch your numbers
  • Build your Excel or Google Sheet
  • Plug in all the right multipliers for your city
  • Show you exactly how to use it

Step 4 — Keep Improving It

Your first calculator is just the start.

After every protest:

  • Log:
    • Signups
    • Actual crowd size
    • Conditions
    • News environment
  • Update your tool

Over time, your predictions will get sharper—and your planning unstoppable.

Optional — Add a “Vibe Score”

Want to capture the national or local rage factor?

Check Google Trends:

  • Search protest-related keywords
  • Higher scores = bigger potential crowds
  • Keep a weekly log

Later, you can wire this into your calculator to make it even smarter.

Remember:

  • No two cities are the same.
  • Your data = your power.
  • You deserve tools that work for YOUR movement.
  • Solidarity + data = unstoppable organizing.

Disclaimers

This tool is for planning purposes only and does not guarantee crowd turnout.

Always prioritize safety and local laws when organizing events.

Accuracy Reminder

Reminder: To improve the accuracy of this tool, it’s important to keep updating ChatGPT with data from each protest you organize. Aim for data from at least 20 events for the most reliable predictions. The more data you provide, the more accurate your crowd size estimates will become.

Contact

Developed by Indivisible Douglas County Oregon
info@indivisibledouglascounty.org
www.indivisibledouglascounty.org